MNE/ISE MS Project Presentation by Mr. Salman Sohel Mia
When: Thursday,
November 30, 2017
2:00 PM
-
3:00 PM
Description: Mechanical Engineering (MNE) / Industrial & Systems Engineering (ISE)
Master of Science Project Presentation
by Mr. Salman Sohel Mia
DATE:
November 30, 2017
TIME:
2:00 p.m. 3:00 p.m.
LOCATION:
Charlton College of Business (CCB), Room 115
TOPIC:
Aviation Demand Forecasting Model with the Help of Actual Data Analysis by Comparing Existing Models
ABSTRACT:
The goal of this paper is to feed actual data to the selected forecasting models based on different conditions and then compare the results with each other. In the process, try to establish a model which can have a projection for next few years with a negligible deviation from the real data based on the comparison. The focus will be on number of flights, passenger demand and airfare and to establish a strong model will be crucial as there are other entities such as GDP, Load Factor, Fuel Cost, Revenue, Operating Expense, Revenue Per Mile, Available Seat Miles which could affect them directly or indirectly. With the help of various analytical tools such as trend analysis, probability analysis, correlation and regression model the collected actual data will be analyzed and validated. Then the forecast scenarios will be identified. It will also deal with how to develop a model to forecast air passenger demand and air fare to evaluate passenger terminal capacity expansion to meet the future demand. Dynamics frameworks normally be used to model, analyze and generate scenario to increase the system performance where its capability of representing physical and information flows actually continuously converted into decisions and actions. Researchers found that airfare impact, level of service impact, GDP, population, number of flights per day and dwell time play an important role. It also helps determining the air passenger volume, No. of air flights arrangements and on top total additional area needed for passenger terminal capacity expansion including runway utilization. It will discuss about demand forecast uncertainty in brief just to mention that there are various practical reasons and entities that can be impossible to predict accurately as well. It includes the capacity extension and discus how directly it depends on demand forecasting.
KEY WORDS:
Modeling, Forecasting, Model Comparison, Model Validation & Verification
ADVISOR:
Dr. Soheil Sibdari
Decision and Information Sciences, Charlton College of Business, UMD
COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Dr. Wenzhen Huang, Mechanical Engineering, College of Engineering, UMD
Dr. Bharatendra Rai, Decision and Information Sciences, Charlton College of Business, UMD
Open to the public. All MNE students are encouraged to attend.
For more information, please contact Dr. Soheil Sibdari (ssibdari@umassd.edu, 508-999-8019).
Thank you,
Sue Cunha, Administrative Assistant
Mechanical Engineering
scunha@umassd.edu
508-999-8492
Master of Science Project Presentation
by Mr. Salman Sohel Mia
DATE:
November 30, 2017
TIME:
2:00 p.m. 3:00 p.m.
LOCATION:
Charlton College of Business (CCB), Room 115
TOPIC:
Aviation Demand Forecasting Model with the Help of Actual Data Analysis by Comparing Existing Models
ABSTRACT:
The goal of this paper is to feed actual data to the selected forecasting models based on different conditions and then compare the results with each other. In the process, try to establish a model which can have a projection for next few years with a negligible deviation from the real data based on the comparison. The focus will be on number of flights, passenger demand and airfare and to establish a strong model will be crucial as there are other entities such as GDP, Load Factor, Fuel Cost, Revenue, Operating Expense, Revenue Per Mile, Available Seat Miles which could affect them directly or indirectly. With the help of various analytical tools such as trend analysis, probability analysis, correlation and regression model the collected actual data will be analyzed and validated. Then the forecast scenarios will be identified. It will also deal with how to develop a model to forecast air passenger demand and air fare to evaluate passenger terminal capacity expansion to meet the future demand. Dynamics frameworks normally be used to model, analyze and generate scenario to increase the system performance where its capability of representing physical and information flows actually continuously converted into decisions and actions. Researchers found that airfare impact, level of service impact, GDP, population, number of flights per day and dwell time play an important role. It also helps determining the air passenger volume, No. of air flights arrangements and on top total additional area needed for passenger terminal capacity expansion including runway utilization. It will discuss about demand forecast uncertainty in brief just to mention that there are various practical reasons and entities that can be impossible to predict accurately as well. It includes the capacity extension and discus how directly it depends on demand forecasting.
KEY WORDS:
Modeling, Forecasting, Model Comparison, Model Validation & Verification
ADVISOR:
Dr. Soheil Sibdari
Decision and Information Sciences, Charlton College of Business, UMD
COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Dr. Wenzhen Huang, Mechanical Engineering, College of Engineering, UMD
Dr. Bharatendra Rai, Decision and Information Sciences, Charlton College of Business, UMD
Open to the public. All MNE students are encouraged to attend.
For more information, please contact Dr. Soheil Sibdari (ssibdari@umassd.edu, 508-999-8019).
Thank you,
Sue Cunha, Administrative Assistant
Mechanical Engineering
scunha@umassd.edu
508-999-8492
Topical Areas: Faculty, General Public, Students, University Community, Decision and Information Science, College of Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Lectures and Seminars