University Events

Description: Department of Fisheries Oceanography
PhD Dissertation Proposal


Supporting Integrated Ecosystem Assessment under Model Structural Uncertainty

By
Robert Wildermuth

Advisor
Gavin Fay


Thursday, December 14, 2017
3:00 pm

SMAST East, Room 101/102
836 S. Rodney French Blvd., New Bedford, MA


Abstract
Integrated Ecosystem Assessment is an iterative science-based approach to ecosystem-based management that helps stakeholders communicate about their understanding of marine social-ecological systems, the threats putting human activities and marine resources at risk, and the effectiveness of past and potential management actions. Ecosystem models aid in evaluating these issues. Yet decisions made during model development can result in inherent biases, exposing management advice to model structure uncertainty. Structural uncertainty results from choices about the complexity, datasets, and processes represented in the model and can be better understood through structural sensitivity analysis and skill assessments. I propose to develop and test the robustness of a modeling framework for Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of Georges Bank, USA, that addresses: 1) uncertainty and complexity in models for ecosystem-based management, 2) model inference from qualitative and quantitative data sources, and 3) skill assessment of modeling tools for natural marine resource management. This work will explore both the descriptive and predictive dimensions of two case studies: a multispecies biomass production model and a whole-of-system social-ecological model characterized using qualitative and Bayesian network methods. Together, the work proposed here provides a framework to address model structural uncertainty that is amenable for model assessment during each stage of Integrated Ecosystem Assessment and facilitates closing the iterative management loop.

for more information, please contact cfox@umassd.edu