Department of Fisheries Oceanography / SMAST seminar - January 31, 2018 - Gavin Fay
When: Wednesday,
January 31, 2018
2:30 PM
-
3:30 PM
Where: New Bedford New Bedford, MA
Description: Department of Fisheries Oceanography
Thinking uncertainly about uncertainty: characterizing ecosystem responses to change
Gavin Fay
Assistant Professor
Department of Fisheries Oceanography
SMAST/UMass Dartmouth
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
2:30 pm - 3:30 pm
SMAST-E rm. 101/102
836 South Rodney French Boulevard, New Bedford, MA
Abstract
Ecosystems are complicated, and predicting the consequences of decisions for managing human activities in marine systems is hard. However, considering uncertainties and identifying tradeoffs among objectives is central to successful management. A portfolio of decision support tools exist that provide paths to including uncertainty. As the toolbox of ecosystem models expands to encompass fuller aspects of socio-ecological systems, methods developed for quantifying statistical uncertainty of assessment models become difficult or impractical. Additional approaches for incorporating the consequences of uncertainty and risk are needed. I will discuss applications of two approaches for characterizing uncertainty associated with ecosystem change and management action.
Conceptual and qualitative models can rapidly evaluate scenarios with simple assumptions about system interactions. These models can then be used as screening tools for application of more data-intensive models, or as a method for triage and risk assessment across a holistic set of management objectives. Results for Northeast US ecoregions underlined the importance of system drivers on strategy outcomes, the need for multi-model inference, and that shifts in underlying system drivers will likely affect ecoregions differently.
End-to-end ecosystem models are more complicated ecosystem-based management tools that couple highly detailed descriptions of ecological, physical, and human dynamics to consider a wide range of scenarios, and can provide integrated solutions to complex ocean management problems. Applying eight Atlantis models that spanned marine ecosystems from the tropics to the arctic, we used a comparative approach to evaluate effects of changes in ocean acidification, spatial management, and fishing pressure. Results suggested stronger impacts from ocean acidification and marine protected areas than from altering fishing pressure, and identified tradeoffs (both 'winners' and 'losers') in many cases. Although exhaustive exploration of parameter space for each modeled region is probably infeasible, comparing results of the same management scenarios for multiple systems provides a window on the uncertainty associated with those scenarios.
To access the live broadcasting, go to https://echo360.org/ and click on "Alternate login"
you will have to login as smast@umassd.edu with the password: smastumassd
After login you will have to click on ALL CLASSES (MAR 700 - 01 - DEOS Seminar or MAR 700 - 02 - DFO Seminar) and click on the green LIVE streaming.
To view a video of an SMAST seminar (post-October 1, 2014), go to http://www.umassd.edu/smast/newsandevents/seminarseries/ and click on a highlighted title.
For more information, please contact cfox@umassd.edu
Thinking uncertainly about uncertainty: characterizing ecosystem responses to change
Gavin Fay
Assistant Professor
Department of Fisheries Oceanography
SMAST/UMass Dartmouth
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
2:30 pm - 3:30 pm
SMAST-E rm. 101/102
836 South Rodney French Boulevard, New Bedford, MA
Abstract
Ecosystems are complicated, and predicting the consequences of decisions for managing human activities in marine systems is hard. However, considering uncertainties and identifying tradeoffs among objectives is central to successful management. A portfolio of decision support tools exist that provide paths to including uncertainty. As the toolbox of ecosystem models expands to encompass fuller aspects of socio-ecological systems, methods developed for quantifying statistical uncertainty of assessment models become difficult or impractical. Additional approaches for incorporating the consequences of uncertainty and risk are needed. I will discuss applications of two approaches for characterizing uncertainty associated with ecosystem change and management action.
Conceptual and qualitative models can rapidly evaluate scenarios with simple assumptions about system interactions. These models can then be used as screening tools for application of more data-intensive models, or as a method for triage and risk assessment across a holistic set of management objectives. Results for Northeast US ecoregions underlined the importance of system drivers on strategy outcomes, the need for multi-model inference, and that shifts in underlying system drivers will likely affect ecoregions differently.
End-to-end ecosystem models are more complicated ecosystem-based management tools that couple highly detailed descriptions of ecological, physical, and human dynamics to consider a wide range of scenarios, and can provide integrated solutions to complex ocean management problems. Applying eight Atlantis models that spanned marine ecosystems from the tropics to the arctic, we used a comparative approach to evaluate effects of changes in ocean acidification, spatial management, and fishing pressure. Results suggested stronger impacts from ocean acidification and marine protected areas than from altering fishing pressure, and identified tradeoffs (both 'winners' and 'losers') in many cases. Although exhaustive exploration of parameter space for each modeled region is probably infeasible, comparing results of the same management scenarios for multiple systems provides a window on the uncertainty associated with those scenarios.
To access the live broadcasting, go to https://echo360.org/ and click on "Alternate login"
you will have to login as smast@umassd.edu with the password: smastumassd
After login you will have to click on ALL CLASSES (MAR 700 - 01 - DEOS Seminar or MAR 700 - 02 - DFO Seminar) and click on the green LIVE streaming.
To view a video of an SMAST seminar (post-October 1, 2014), go to http://www.umassd.edu/smast/newsandevents/seminarseries/ and click on a highlighted title.
For more information, please contact cfox@umassd.edu
Contact: > See Description for contact information
Topical Areas: School for Marine Sciences and Technology, SMAST Seminar Series