Department of Fisheries Oceanography / SMAST seminar - February 14, 2018 - Jonathan Cummings, Ph.D
When: Wednesday,
February 14, 2018
2:30 PM
-
3:30 PM
Where: New Bedford New Bedford, MA
Description: Department of Fisheries Oceanography
Population Modeling and Decision Analysis for Resource Management
Jonathan Cummings, Ph.D.
Post-Doctoral Fellow
SMAST/UMass Dartmouth
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
2:30 pm - 3:30 pm
SMAST-E rm. 101/102
836 South Rodney French Boulevard, New Bedford, MA
Abstract
This seminar will cover my work employing structured decision making techniques and population modeling natural resource management. These techniques utilize economic principles to ensure decisions ae values focused, while utilizing ecological science to evaluate and predict the consequences of available management actions to provided decision support. I will discuss the role of these techniques in contemporary resource management, and their application in two natural resource problems.
The Vermont Fish and Wildlife Department is unusual in that they conduct necropsies to determine the sex and age of harvested fishers, bobcats, and otters. Most neighboring states have discontinued this practice, triggering an evaluation of the benefits of continuing this practice. To evaluate the value of this program I simulated information obtained from the abundance estimation procedures available with and without necropsies and the status of other department objectives to provide decision support to the department. Based on this evaluation the department will obtain the most benefits from a monitoring program including necropsy analysis that uses the Downing method to track population status. Interestingly, this result was influenced more by department objectives that were not connected to the quality of the information gained with necropsies, but from collaborations resulting from interactions that occur at necropsy sessions.
The US Fish and Wildlife Service is re-evaluating the status of lesser prairie-chickens following a legally induced delisting of the species, and a subsequent petition to relist. We built a population viability analysis model to predict future population status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in four ecoregions across the species’ range. The model results will be used in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Species Status Assessment, the scientific document used in later endangered species decision making. Our stochastic projection model combined demographic rate estimates from previously published literature with demographic rate estimates that integrate the influence of climate conditions. Our results project declining populations with estimated population growth rates well below 1 in each ecoregion. Our model accounted for climate change and habitat availability projections, but found the overall conclusions were consistent regardless of projected habitat or climate changes. These results are consistent with estimates of population growth rates derived from other demographic process models. However, the absolute magnitude of the decline is unlikely to be as low as modeling tools indicate, requiring some consideration of several additional lines of evidence suggest the populations are declining as well.
To access the live broadcasting, go to https://echo360.org/ and click on "Alternate login"
you will have to login as smast@umassd.edu with the password: smastumassd
After login you will have to click on ALL CLASSES (MAR 700 - 01 - DEOS Seminar or MAR 700 - 02 - DFO Seminar) and click on the green LIVE streaming.
To view a video of an SMAST seminar (post-October 1, 2014), go to http://www.umassd.edu/smast/newsandevents/seminarseries/ and click on a highlighted title.
For more information, please contact cfox@umassd.edu
Population Modeling and Decision Analysis for Resource Management
Jonathan Cummings, Ph.D.
Post-Doctoral Fellow
SMAST/UMass Dartmouth
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
2:30 pm - 3:30 pm
SMAST-E rm. 101/102
836 South Rodney French Boulevard, New Bedford, MA
Abstract
This seminar will cover my work employing structured decision making techniques and population modeling natural resource management. These techniques utilize economic principles to ensure decisions ae values focused, while utilizing ecological science to evaluate and predict the consequences of available management actions to provided decision support. I will discuss the role of these techniques in contemporary resource management, and their application in two natural resource problems.
The Vermont Fish and Wildlife Department is unusual in that they conduct necropsies to determine the sex and age of harvested fishers, bobcats, and otters. Most neighboring states have discontinued this practice, triggering an evaluation of the benefits of continuing this practice. To evaluate the value of this program I simulated information obtained from the abundance estimation procedures available with and without necropsies and the status of other department objectives to provide decision support to the department. Based on this evaluation the department will obtain the most benefits from a monitoring program including necropsy analysis that uses the Downing method to track population status. Interestingly, this result was influenced more by department objectives that were not connected to the quality of the information gained with necropsies, but from collaborations resulting from interactions that occur at necropsy sessions.
The US Fish and Wildlife Service is re-evaluating the status of lesser prairie-chickens following a legally induced delisting of the species, and a subsequent petition to relist. We built a population viability analysis model to predict future population status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in four ecoregions across the species’ range. The model results will be used in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Species Status Assessment, the scientific document used in later endangered species decision making. Our stochastic projection model combined demographic rate estimates from previously published literature with demographic rate estimates that integrate the influence of climate conditions. Our results project declining populations with estimated population growth rates well below 1 in each ecoregion. Our model accounted for climate change and habitat availability projections, but found the overall conclusions were consistent regardless of projected habitat or climate changes. These results are consistent with estimates of population growth rates derived from other demographic process models. However, the absolute magnitude of the decline is unlikely to be as low as modeling tools indicate, requiring some consideration of several additional lines of evidence suggest the populations are declining as well.
To access the live broadcasting, go to https://echo360.org/ and click on "Alternate login"
you will have to login as smast@umassd.edu with the password: smastumassd
After login you will have to click on ALL CLASSES (MAR 700 - 01 - DEOS Seminar or MAR 700 - 02 - DFO Seminar) and click on the green LIVE streaming.
To view a video of an SMAST seminar (post-October 1, 2014), go to http://www.umassd.edu/smast/newsandevents/seminarseries/ and click on a highlighted title.
For more information, please contact cfox@umassd.edu
Contact: > See Description for contact information
Topical Areas: School for Marine Sciences and Technology, SMAST Seminar Series