University Events

Description: The School for Marine Science and Technology
Department of Estuarine and Ocean Sciences
Seminar Announcement

"Extreme Events in the Benguela Upwelling System"

Sarah Gaines
University of Rhode Island

Wednesday, October 26, 2022
12:30 pm to 1:30 pm
SMAST East, Rooms 101/102
and via Zoom

Abstract:
Wind in Cape Town is notorious and occasionally the prevailing summer south-easter can cause havoc on land and sea. Recent data have shown that the duration and magnitude of these wind events are having a noticeable operational and economic impact on the port and the city. Various components of the operation of the container and goods terminals in the Port of Cape Town, have windspeed safety thresholds, above which operations are required to cease. With some wind events persisting for days, the impact can be amplified if cargo vessel operators opt to transfer cargo bound for/from Cape Town, at the next port of call. Similarly, downtime is caused by ships’ quayside ranging due to high swell. The value chain of port operations is complex involving not only cargo handling but also stakeholders who service and manage administration of shipping operations, import and export processing and businesses who depend on shipping for time sensitive cargo. Extreme wind in the port has become so problematic that the government to consider scaling down operations there and relocating them to a port an hour north of Cape Town, which would have very deep economic impacts on the region’s economy. The EXEBUS project (Belmont Forum-funded project on Ecological and Economic impacts of the intensification of EXtreme Events in the Benguela Upwelling System) is considering this case study to investigate and mitigate these conditions with both early warning systems and potential engineering adaptations. We need to understand the extent of the problem, links to change in the larger Benguela system and quantify the value chain to measure the true economic and social impact of port delays caused by wind relative to other drivers. A process of stakeholder engagement is conducted to identify all those affected by this problem, from the port authority, through the port operators, to the individuals whose businesses and livelihoods are impacted. From a biophyscial perspective, we must ascertain what contribution increased wind intensity (windspeed, duration and seasonality shifts) are making and what is attributable to confounding factors (additional wharf capacity, ship size trends etc). Understanding the climatology of the wind at different time and space scales, considering regional climate dynamics and the impact of ENSO events, is a third factor. These aspects are then brought together to examine the trends, proximal and distal drivers of extreme winds, and to evaluate the social and economic strategic options available to manage this extreme event.
Sarah Gaines will provide updates on the EXEBUS Project, primarily the case study on extreme wind in Cape Town but also cases related to fisheries in Angola, economic impacts in Namibia and marine heat waves in South Africa. She will also share an overview of the work of the Coastal Resources Center at the University of Rhode Island.
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Zoom Meeting sign on:
https://umassd.zoom.us/j/97440069270?pwd=L2Z1bDZESTFCKzJYZWduYVhWenYvZz09
Meeting ID: 974 4006 9270
Passcode: 428029
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For additional information, please contact Sue Silva at s1silva@umassd.edu